Snow Hope: Officials Worry About Drought Potential

Officials are hoping that a changed weather pattern that has brought a series of storms to the Lower Cape will push groundwater levels to begin their seasonal rebound. If it doesn’t, it could be a precursor to a summer of water use restrictions.

 On Feb. 7, state officials declared a Level 2 significant drought for all of southeastern Massachusetts. State guidelines encourage residents and businesses to be mindful of indoor water use, and they encourage communities to immediately limit the outdoor washing of cars and boats. Local towns have taken no such action. The U.S. Drought Monitor, operated by the University of Nebraska, confirms that the region is abnormally dry.

 Groundwater levels on the Lower Cape are measured by U.S. Geological Survey monitoring wells off Route 137 in South Chatham and in Nickerson State Park in Brewster. Despite recent rain and snow, the shallower Chatham well, which tends to be more reactive to short-term weather conditions, remains at a low state. Chatham DPW Director Rob Faley showed the well data to the select board last week.

 “It’s still really concerning, as it’s floundering and hasn’t started recharging yet,” he said. Typically, the groundwater on Cape Cod hits its lowest levels in November or December and is then boosted by winter snows and spring rains before the aquifer hits peak levels around April or May. The level then steadily declines through the summer and early fall. 

 Faley acknowledged that the dry weather pattern has shifted to a more active one that has dropped heavy rains and some snowfall in recent weeks, “which will help, but it’s still concerning. Usually by the first of the year we’re starting to recharge, and we’re still stuck in that trough,” he said.

 The pattern seen in the Chatham well is consistent with Brewster’s data, which shows groundwater at about 32.5 feet below the surface at a time when it should be about a foot higher. 

 “We’re in February and we’re still at the bottom of the trough, so time will tell,” Faley said.

 There is some good news: peak seasonal groundwater levels have been rising each spring since 2021. The following August, the aquifer gets extremely low, prompting the state to declare a critical drought, requiring towns to implement mandatory water restrictions. Local officials worry that the low water levels now could be a precursor to a similar summer.

 “We’re now in February and we haven’t seen it move,” Chatham Select Board member Shareen Davis said. “When should we, as a board, start talking about taking measures or starting to address some of the demand that we’re going to see in the summer?”

 “I think we still have time,” Faley said. “The ground’s been frozen; there hasn’t been a lot of recharge that’s been allowed.” If the spring is a particularly wet one, the aquifer still has several months to regain ground, he said. It could take that long “to see how Mother Nature helps us, or hurts us,” Faley said. 

 He suggested that the board might consider taking some action if conditions haven’t begun to improve by late April. That’s still well before demand on the town’s water system hits its seasonal peak.

 “Really, it’s the irrigation systems and the summer usage,” he said. “So we have time to react if it got critical.”